Chess and retirement decumulation

The end game requires a dynamic strategy

Did you catch The Queen’s Gambit series on Netflix? It came out a couple of years ago, and is still playing if you want to take a look. It’s a fictional account of a 1960s prodigy who disrupts the world of chess. Apart from drawing millions of viewers, it’s led to a bonanza in chessboard sales.

There are some interesting parallels between chess and our income choices in retirement. As in chess, a lot of moving parts affect retirement, some we can control and some we must contend with. Both domains require strategy, forethought and flexibility. 

Decumulation with tax in mind

Some retirement decisions are one-time, like starting Old Age Security and Canada Pension Plan. Others may be infrequent, like winding-up a business, downsizing a home, whether to engage assisted living support or when to consider a move into long-term care.

In terms of private savings, a critical juncture is when to switch modes from building retirement savings to drawing from them. This is the move from accumulation to decumulation, with three common savings sources to draw from: an RRSP/RRIF (including locked-in versions), a TFSA and non-registered investments. Respectively, the draw from each of these sources is taxable, non-taxable and partially taxable.

Usually, the desire is to maintain a certain lifestyle while minimizing income tax. That’s not as simple a task as it may seem, given our progressive income tax system that charges higher tax rates on higher income levels. Paying tax may not be pleasant, but too much focus on reducing a current year’s tax bill could lead to a disproportionately heftier tax bill in future years, especially if brought into income at death. It depends on personal values how much of tax planning is about the here, the here together (as a couple), and the hereafter.

The key is to determine how best to draw on these savings sources to achieve the desired result.

Planning through the permutations

Effective decumulation is often framed as a search for the optimal order for depleting each savings source before moving on to the next. That’s the way financial planning software algorithms may solve for targets such as maximizing net wealth at life expectancy. In this case, the software might provide a rank order of the six possible permutations among the three savings sources.

But we shouldn’t expect the output to be a set-it-and-forget-it prescription. That would require knowing not only our present circumstances and intentions, but also all future developments.

Consider again the game of chess. The board is an 8 by 8 grid, with each of the two players having 16 playing pieces. So, before the game starts, half of the 64 squares are occupied. White chooses among 20 opening moves, as does Black to follow, leading to 400 possible board layouts when White considers move number two. By round three, there are 197,281 layout possibilities, and over 119 million two moves later.

Amazing as that is as an example of exponential expansion, it pales in comparison to our years in retirement. Life has far more variables, and more actions that may be taken with each. These include the option to draw from multiple sources from time to time to tactically exploit tax opportunities, rather than fully liquidating each source in succession.

Vision, revision and annual reviews

Chess and financial planning share the need to anticipate, act, observe and adapt. That’s what chess masters do, always looking a few moves ahead and then continually adapting as each turn comes around.

Similarly, as life unfolds in retirement, we are not necessarily bound to continue on a path that was suitable when set some years ago, but that may no longer fit current needs. Changes happen to us, and to the world around us:

    • Personal circumstances
    • Available wealth, in each savings source and as a whole
    • The world we live in, with particular attention on any new or modified tax rules

Often, things are fairly fixed over the short term, but become more flexible looking further out in time. With some foresight and forethought, adjustments can be made according to changing conditions – both as required and as desired – in the way we spend our time and how we spend our money.

The important point to emphasize here is that the process is dynamic, ideally anchored by annual reviews with a capable financial advisor. At each turn, advisor and client can plot the best course using the information presently at hand, with full understanding and intention that the plan will revisited as each year unfolds, and revised as necessary according to developments.

Would I “recommend” a DIY Will?

I’ve been asked about DIY/do-it-yourself Wills with sufficient regularity over the years that I decided to cobble together some points-to-ponder for those considering this for their estate planning. [By the way, the term “lawyer”  as I use it here is intended to include regulated qualified paralegals.]

Some inquiries are open-ended, others posed as a premise/belief, and more than a few seeking comment on a statistic (often unsourced or unverifiable, or drawn from a survey by a DIY Will service) stating or intimating that many/most people don’t ‘need’ a lawyer to prepare a Will. Though technically correct that one is not compelled to hire a lawyer, this misdirects attention away from the benefit of a proper legal review. And while it’s also true that relatively few Wills and estates encounter serious legal problems, it is both dangerous and faulty logic to confuse that with the risk/probability of issues arising in an individual circumstance.

When things go wrong, the fallout – for the people most importantly, and secondarily for the property – could range from inconvenient to inconceivable. While I won’t suggest that every such endeavour is destined for disaster, and acknowledge that in ultimate hindsight a particular DIY Will may have been adequate, I can’t in good conscience “recommend” a DIY approach.

The world has certainly come a long way from the paper-only fill-in-the-blank stationers’ forms of decades past. Whereas those forms left the user very much on their own, today’s online services can guide users through both information entry and document production in a much more interactive way. Even so, it remains the user’s responsibility to follow the service’s instructions. As a mechanical exercise, that’s arguably just a matter of being conscientious. However, a given user may actively or subconsciously treat some aspects of those instructions as being open to interpretation. For example, full disclosure will invariably be requested, but the user could still inadvertently or intentionally downplay or withhold details that are thought to be too small, too remote from the person, too far in the past, too unlikely to be discovered (maybe due to being too embarrassing), or too unlikely to materialize in future. Rather than having to vocally confirm responses and reply to follow-up probing questions while looking their lawyer in the eye, the user will have produced something that rests on an imperfect foundation at best.

Few (if any) online services have a qualified lawyer who conducts person-to-person reviews of entries with the user to determine whether the generated documents truly fit individual circumstances, or provides catered advice on what alternative/additional steps and strategies may be warranted. In fact, the best assurance an online DIY service can likely give is that if you follow their execution instructions, you will have a legally enforceable Will. But the limitation with ‘enforceability’ as a success criterion is that a Will is but one part of estate planning, though of course a critically important part.

The wider scope of estate planning is about taking care of the important people who depend on you (including yourself), now and in future, and when you’re no longer around. Fulfilling that care-imperative commonly involves using, sharing, and transferring property, and conferring legal rights and powers upon others – sometimes now sometimes later, sometimes outright sometimes with strings attached, sometimes by Will and sometimes in other ways. So, the priority is not simply to have a legally enforceable Will, but to have a practical plan and process with coordinated components that are both legally informed, and yes … legally enforceable.

In a retained lawyer situation, that conversation allows for options to be suggested, explored, opined-upon and recommended. This is not a journey that follows the same straight path for everyone, fits neatly into an entry box on a form, or exists within a predetermined list on a service’s database. That’s not to say that a lawyer-prepared Will will be airtight, but it will have the benefit of the lawyer’s training and experience applied in context. This significantly reduces the elements of mystery and chance that can come out of an impersonal and unadvised process.

For many people, a face-to-face professional engagement also provides greater confidence and comfort, as compared to contact-in-the-ether that may lead to lingering unease that things are probably okay. That ‘probably’ is itself probably not too satisfying given that a Will is in many ways the most important document that a person will create in their lifetime – or alternatively that they fail to create, or fail to create properly.

Finally, it is understandable and appropriate for cost to be a consideration, but it is far from the main concern, and definitely should not be viewed in isolation. First in terms of timing/recurring cost, preparation of estate planning documents is a relatively infrequent activity, perhaps revisited every half dozen years or when compelled by joyous occasions like a birth or when tragedy unfortunately strikes. Secondly as a value proposition, it’s far more important that a person’s needs are met than for it to be the cheapest option available. Third and related to the preceding point, low-cost is sometimes expressed along with the sentiment that ‘something is better than nothing’, but that is an arbitrary measurement and risky suggestion. The apparent deal of a low-price service could fall short of needs, or worse yet could lead to a result that is counter to what is appropriate. Ultimately, a Will takes effect on death, meaning that the deceased will never know or have the opportunity to correct for a flawed, but legally enforceable Will.

Please keep all this in mind as you consider what will best serve you and the people whom you are protecting and providing for in your estate planning.

To sleep, to wake, to make better financial decisions

Here’s one of those Running Thoughts … Despite (because of?) the pandemic, I’ve been making a point to get out for a run whenever the weather even closely accommodates, and otherwise I’ve been keeping up with my indoor workouts. Either way, the earphones are in, so I’m getting in more audiobooks and podcasts.

I just got through a rather lengthy book this afternoon, Why we sleep from Matthew Walker. This link takes you to Walker’s author page, where you’ll find  a link over to Amazon if you want to buy the book – OR, you can  do as I did, and borrow it from your local library. In my case, I listened to it on cloudLibrary.

While I didn’t think I was all alone in having occasional sleep challenges, Walker provides an eye-opening view (sorry … typed that before I realized how cheesy, but I’m leaving it) of just how prevalent and problematic sleep challenges can be. He reinforces over and over how drowsiness is worse than drunk driving (in terms of its statistical frequency, not morally speaking).

My own sleep challenges

As a young(er) adult, like many I thought I was almost immune to sleep problems. Once our babies were on the bottle, I was the primary night-feeding designate, as I could be done and back to sleep almost immediately, often 2 or 3 times on a given night. My belief was bolstered (to my detriment) by the ease with which I could rise early for flights, adapt to time zone changes and hotel beds, and fall asleep right after coming back in the door. (Hmm, those regular absences  might also explain why I was on tap for baby bottles when I was home.)

Things changed in recent years, with changing job responsibilities, changing jobs altogether, and just changes in me due to age (this last one not boding well, given that I’m not yet at the age when this is more commonly a concern).

Thoughts on sleep and personal finance?

Your ability to focus is significantly impaired if you are not getting 7-9 hours of sleep consistently. Despite the bravado claims of people who burn the candle at both ends, they are paying for that now, and will pay for it in future in terms of weakened health, frayed relationships and reduced life expectancy.

The simplest application of this material is that one should be careful to be well-rested before making any significant financial decision.

And as financial decisions go, a house purchase is the biggest for most of us. If you have been going through bidding  wars, you can literally be losing sleep for weeks on end. Walker’s research shows that your cognitive ability declines in a measurable way when this happens. With the very personal nature of a home purchase, there’s a danger that your emotional drive could overtake your logical side. With so much on the line, it’s important to stay alert so you can keep those two influences in balance.

Walker explains how you can’t catch up on lost sleep one night by simply adding the same amount the next. He emphasizes that it doesn’t fit the analogy of accumulating credits that you cash in later.

Looking now at real credit and debt management, that’s the classic situation where people may lose sleep. Your ability to appreciate, analyze and manage your debt will be compromised if you can’t bring your best brain to bear. Staying awake at night (possibly intentionally) could take you down a spiral that causes large and long-term harm. That’s not to suggest that it will automatically be easy with a good night’s sleep, but if you are able to get that sleep then you give yourself much more of a fighting chance.

Walker’s recommendations for good sleep health

Walker has 12 recommendations, and I’m noting here the key points that stood out for me. You can check out the book yourself for the full list:

  1. Have a regular sleep time. This is #1 for a reason! In fact it’s even more important to have an alarm that tells you when to go to sleep than one that tells you when to get up.
  2. Go to bed only when you’re sleepy, and avoid sleeping on the couch
  3. Avoid daytime napping if you’re having trouble sleeping at night. And if you are a napper, don’t do it after 3pm.
  4. Again if you’re having problems, don’t lie in bed more than 20 minutes dwelling on getting to sleep. Get up and do something relaxing until the urge to sleep returns.
  5. Remove anxiety producing worries by learning to decelerate before going to bed.
  6. Understand how the chemical attributes of nicotine, caffeine and alcohol affect sleep, and how they affect your own sleep.

And one last thing … exercise can contribute to greater sleep consistency. Be  sure though to finish 2-3 hours before bedtime so that your body is sufficiently cooled down.